Confused Eagle

Regarding Jobs

2013-05-08T16:16:45Z

Recently President Obama went on a trip to both Mexico and Costa Rica in a effort to promote
US Jobs in the region. Should we be surprised if Congress decided to take a different route?

Yesterday the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa under the stewardship of Representative Chris Smith of New Jersey held a hearing about increasing US Jobs by increasing exports to Africa. There is a sound backing for this strategy. It is shown by several studies that for every additional $1 Billion in exports by the US will generate between 6,000 to 7,000 Jobs.

It is this reasoning that Congressman Smith along with Congresswoman Karen Bass of California and Congressman Bobby Rush of Illinois have introduced H.R. 1777 aka the Increasing American Jobs Through Greater Exports to Africa Act of 2013. There is similar legislation on the Senate Side known as S. 718. The Main purpose of the Legislation is to increase US Trade to Africa by 200% over the next decade. It will also mandate that a minimum of 25% of US funds for trade deals to be devoted to facilitate US-Africa Trade.

There are some issues that need to be addressed such as the pay to play problem that highlights corruption and the fact that the lack of US Investment due to Sanctions and other issues plays into the hands of other powers notably China. Having these issues addressed could lead to targeted US Investments in areas such as Agriculture.

Another event here in Washington dealt with the role Somalia will play as a National Security Interest of the United States. The writer of Confused Eagle was able to ask a two-part question to a Former Prime Minister of Somalia. The first was a critique of the AMISOM mission which receives lots of US Dollars. The second part asked about the infrastructure within Somalia.

The Former PM stated that if it wasn't for AMISOM then Somalia would not be in the position that it is now in. He also lamented the murder of Burundian Peacekeepers as well. As to the infrastructure question he did say that there are no railroads in the Country and that the roads themselves are in poor shape.

Noticed that some Congolese and Rwandan Blogs over in Europe are reporting that the Rwandans have given M23 Rebels some SAMs... What is Ironic is that these missiles are the same type that shot down the Plane carrying the Rwandan President and started the genocide back in 1994. More to come on this story as the UN Intervention Brigade arrives soon.

Finally to wrap it up it appears that the Evangelicals may be at it again. Over the weekend a meeting was held in Ethiopia where several groups met and stated that Ethiopia needed a Kill the Gays Bills....

Interesting Visitor

2013-04-26T22:35:56Z

It has been revealed that one of the people believed to be the main architects of the Darfur Genocide will be coming to the United States in the near future.

Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie who is a Presidential Advisor to Bashir and was formerly head of the National Intelligence and Security Services is to arrive in the United States sometime in the near future as part of an Official Sudanese Delegation to discuss the Security Situation in the Nuba Mountains and in other crisis spots along the border with South Sudan.

Dr Nafie was the man behind the infamous Ghost Houses that were used in the past. The concept of this man as a peacemaker on behalf of the Government of Sudan is hypocritical. When he was in the Senate President Obama was critical of the dealings that President Bush had with Khartoum and now he is doing the same thing....

Some news from the CAR: It appears that somehow one of the main Opposition Leaders in Chad Ishmael Iddris Ishmael was somehow lured to Bangui. He was then captured and turned over to the Government of Chad. In an interesting report it appears that some of the actions of Seleka are forcing some members of the group to leave the group. Therefore the days of the ruler could be limited as well.

Has anyone noticed the recent State Department Report on Human Rights entry on Nigeria? In particular the apparent endorsement of a Federal Sharia Court which cites no source in the Nigerian Constitution. The offending passage states: " The constitution also provides the government should establish a federal Sharia court of appeal and a final court of appeal, but authorities had not done so by year's end." Currently the highest appellate court for Sharia-based decisions in Nigeria is the Supreme Court staffed by common law not religious judges who are not required to have any formal training in the Sharia Penal Code.

So why would the State Department say this? I have several colleagues that refer to the State Department Bureau of African Affairs as the Public Relations Department for Boko Haram. That quote sadly makes it clear that it may not be a joke.

The optimism that Somalia will return to the family of nations is gradually rising. However they have to work out the relationship with Somaliland for both parties to move forward. It will be a long intensive process.

More Drones for Africa?

2013-04-18T15:21:17Z

You can almost see the hypocrisy in full force at the United Nations. After all they have been critical of the Obama Administration and its use of UAVs in the Af/Pak theatre. Then came word of the request for their use to support the trouble plagued mission in the Congo.

There is now word that the UN is now considering their use in Cote D'Ivorie. The request can be seen several ways. First of all the UN has major concerns in the Western part of the country. Earlier this year a column of Peacekeepers was patrolling the Border with Liberia was ambushed with six fatalities. So we see the Border Security Argument being used here.

The UN Mission in Liberia is in the process of scaling back its force by an estimated 4,000 troops this year. So we have another argument for their use as well. We know that the United States has a shiny new Base in Niger to host these machines. It is believed that they will be used to support the African Mission in Mali once that the French and Chadian Forces leave the Country. (Although Paris plans to leave 1,000 troops there....)

So how stable is Cote D'Ivorie? It appears that there are issues in the West (which is where supporters of former President Gbagbo are currently based) regarding Security. Plus the fact that there are plenty of fighters from Liberia that could be called upon are a good recipe for concern.

The US is reportedly going to lift its Arms Sanctions against Somalia. This is just another step towards the Country being welcomed back to the World.

The recent Oepration that led US Counternarcotics Officers to capture the former head of the Guinea-Bissau Navy had an even bigger target in mind. It appears the primary target of the operation was the current head of the Army and they just missed him....... maybe next time he won't be so lucky.

There are now reports that Uganda is requesting more Military Aid from the United States as well......

A Policy in Trouble?

2013-04-04T17:07:39Z

The flight of President Bozize from Bangui has created Problems for the Administration of Jacob Zuma in South Africa. We all know that 13 South African Military Personnel perished during the last push by SELEKA on the Capital of Bangui.

The Opposition Democratic Alliance had planned to introduce a Resolution calling for the immediate withdrawal of South African Forces (200 of them but at last reports reduced down to eight) from the Central African Republic. The Party has since tabled the Resolution. Reports from South Africa state that the President did not have the proper authority to send the forces to assist then-President Bozize. It is clear that South Africa has vested interests in the Extractive Minerals Industry aka Mining. This is one problem for the Obama Administration.

Another Problem is the LRA Mission. Currently there are several Dozen Green Berets stationed in the City of Fizi. During the previous march by SELEKA in December 2012 some of these elite fighters were sent to Bangui to bolster the Defense of the US Embassy. One side of this coin is did these troops have any advance information or warning that the March was going to resume.

The New Leaders in Bangui are reluctant launch any new efforts to rein in Kony. This has Invisible Children which lobbied the US Congress hard for this to prepare a new Campaign using Twitter to target Secretary of State Kerry urging that the United States and Uganda remain committed to bringing Kony to Justice. The Obama Administration has increased the reward on Kony to a cool $5 Million US.

Aid Groups such as MSF (Doctors Without Borders) and Physicians For Human Rights have been delayed in entering the CAR and alleviating the suffering that is currently taking place there. Over 2 million people are suffering from lack of food and other problems.

A Regional Summit was to take place to discuss this situation. Gabon, Chad and Congo-Brazzaville deployed troops to act as a buffer between the Bozize Regime and the Insurgents. There is no word about whether or not they suffered any casualties. However there are reports that also indicate that South Africans did engage Child Soldiers. (Wonder if that will affect US Aid).

A Week of Great Tumult

2013-03-29T16:48:51Z

Last Friday Rep. Karen Bass of California the Ranking Member of House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa Global Health and Human Rights introduced a Resolution regarding the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This Resolution H Res 131 seeks to address "The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the need for international efforts for long term peace, stability and the observance of Human Rights. Since the Resolution has been introduced there has been a violent clash in Katanga Province which resulted in the overrunning of a UN Base and the deaths of 35 people. The UN Security Council has taken the audacious step of authorizing a readiness brigade for this mission after adopting a resolution that was sponsored by the United States, France and Togo.

Right Now the UN senses that the situation in the DRC is in dire straits. This perception is highlighted not only by the violent divisions within M23 but also with the recent attack down in Katanga. In late Feb a Counselor at the DRC Embassy stated that the only problem in the DRC was with one group in the east that was more concerned with what Rwanda was concerned with then the Congo.

Speaking of the UN and Peacekeeping Ops, The Security Council has authorized a force of 11.200 Men to be deployed to Mali after the French withdraw. This will end up being another long slog of a mission like the Congo has turned into.

It has been great to see the interest of the Mainstream Media regarding the plight of a US Pastor in Iran who has been a target for practicing his faith there. But there are two Missionaries from Brazil who are currently in custody in Northern Senegal. They have been in custody since November 2012. So why hasn't there been any interest in this amongst the Media? Could it be that they are from the Global South?

Speaking of the CAR it appears that events there are not by any means settled. The South Africans got bloodied in the last few hours suffering 19 soldiers killed. Reports are that they are preparing for a mission in Uganda. In fact there will be a hearing in the South African Parliament regarding the situation on April 4th. There is no word on whether the US Special Forces that are currently in CAR actively participated in defending Bangui like what happened in December.

It appears that the French are reestablishing their presence in the Country and the Head of the Army has sworn loyalty to the Rebels. The race is on for the Minerals in the Country as well.

The President of the People's Republic of China has wrapped up a trip to Africa that included stops in Tanzanzia and Brazzaville. If you can pick up a Print Edition of the Weekend Version of China Daily there is a good account of the visit to Brazzaville.

To the Hague.....

2013-03-22T14:22:39Z

Bosco Ntaganda is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court. This is only the first step of a Drama that will probably end up revealing several key actors in the Crisis in the Congo that remain hidden.

The fact that he turned himself into the US Embassy in Kigali opens up several unsavory questions: Where is Laurent Nkunda has to be one of the first and most crucial questions. But if you think like someone who has an insight into how things are accomplished in Washington another question is Who Benefits with him going to the Hague?

Joseph Kabila Benefits from this. One key adversary in the Internal Political Climate in the DRC has just been removed and is out of the Country and possibly will end up in Prison. Another key person who benefits is Paul Kagame. He can continue with the "facade" that His Government and Military are not playing a role in the Violence that plagues the Eastern Part of the Country.

It is interesting to note that Congolese Authorities have been searching for Bosco for some time now. How is it that he just shows up at the US Embassy in Kigali? Did the Embassy reach out to him? If so who authorized it? It is possible that this is the first step in a New US Diplomatic Initiative for the region also.

The State Department has designated Ansar Dine which has been active in Mali as a Foreign Terrorist Group. Before the current offensive that was launched earlier this year by French and African Forces the group created havoc in Northern Mali and attempted to create their own Country.

It is currently belived that the group has links with Boko Haram in Nigeria. Earlier this week the Nigerians launched a wave of suicide bombings in Northern Nigeria. Why Ansar Dine is considered to be a FTO and Boko Haram is not by the State Department has confounded several activists here in the United States particularly the Nigerian Diaspora.

Finally we come to Uganda. In recent days the US Ambassador to the Country made a Statement that forced President Museveni to take some form of action. The Ambassador stated that the Grand Corruption plaguing the Country is a direct result of Governance. The Same Day the President met with members of the Acholis. This is the tribe that is most numerous in Northern Uganda. This is the region where the LRA began their two decades of inflecting Hell on Central Africa.

Interesting Ideas

2013-03-16T14:13:49Z

Earlier this week it was announced that the Pentagon would be revising Joint Publication 3-26. This is also known as the Counterterrorism Manual.

The CT program known as the Trans Saharan Counterterrorism Program has been under fire after the Coup that occurred in Mali last year. Mali was one of the initial group of four nations (Mauritania, Niger and Chad) that received assistance when the program was created after the 9/11 attacks on Washington and New York.

In the Foreign Operations budget request for the current Fiscal Year the State Department did request a 17% cut in funding for this program. The Republicans in the House did Honor the request and in one of the CRs which is currently funding the US Government at made it official.

One of the main questions we can ask is why has there been more "success" in the Horn of Africa in particular Somalia then there has been in West Africa? That is a crucial question to ask and one that should be addressed. We may get a glimpse into the answer to that question when the Ugandan Deployment to Mali is realized.

One thing is certain. The New Manual will not be used in Mali. It will be used in the next great African Crisis Spot. My Money is on Nigeria for that to occur.

On to other News:

It appears that the Peace Process in the Central African Republic may be done. Reports indicate that the Rebels launched a new offensive earlier this week. The towns of Bangassou and Rafai have already reported to have fallen to the insurgents and the town of Zemio is the next perceived target.

This quiet crisis which is a result of poor governance has the potential to destabilize Central Africa even further. More details are sure to follow.

Another Central African Country to watch out for is Burundi. Earlier this year the UN Security Council voted to extend the Mission there by another 12 Months. This week there is word of a clash between Police and a Catholic Sect in the North of the Country. This event will add to the long simmering tensions that permeate the Country.

Gabonese President Ali Bongo is coming to Washington in a couple of weeks also. That should be an interesting visit.

Aftermath

2013-03-10T17:42:57Z

A victor has been declared in the Kenyan Presidential Elections. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto who both have been indicted by the International Criminal Court have been declared the victors garnering 50.06% of the cast ballots. Of course Raila Odinga has contested the results. So now what will happen regarding US Relations with Kenya?

The results places both the State Department and the White House in a situation. It has been the position of the United States that Sudanese President Bashir who himself has been indicted by the ICC that when he travels outside the borders of Sudan be taken into custody. Now US Strategic Interests are in play. An ally is going to be ruled by another indictee.

Next month both Kenyatta and VP Ruto are scheduled to be the subject of a hearing at The Hague. The US has stated that Elections do have Consequences. What will they be? Does anyone see the Administration actually withdrawing support for the Kenyan Role in Somalia? Its possible but not likely to happen. But any decision will not occur until after the hearing next month.

Another reason for concern is that there are reports of Libyan Merchants seeking to make deals in Kenya. How much money from the Treasury of Libya has yet to be determined at this time.

Another Country that is in front of the ICC and is a US Ally is Cote D'Ivorie.
Recently an update on the Peacekeeping status in the Country was held here in Washington. It is felt that some allies of President Ouattara along with the wife of Former President Gbagbo should be in the dock as well. Since some Militia Elements that are closely allied to the Former President are prevalent in the Western Part of the Country and have a supply of potential fighters in neighboring Liberia then this is a recipe for potential problems.

Another Country of interest is Uganda. Two weeks ago it was announced that they are going to provide a contingent of troops for Operations in Mali. Recently the Internal Political Situation was the topic of another discussion here in Washington. Some of the key points raised were that dissent is being brutally repressed, The influence of American Evangelicals in the Country is overexaggerated and President Museveni should not be considered an honest broker in the M23 Peace Talks with the Congolese Government.

Another briefing covered the issue of Protection of Civilians by the UN Peacekeeping Mission in South Sudan. This is a relatively small mission having 4700 Peacekeepers in an area roughly the size of France. One of the problems being faced is that the South Sudanese believe that the UN is there to protect them from Aggression from the North.

Currently it is felt that the Churches have done a excellent Job in promoting peace and keeping the Country together. Infrastructure reform in the Country is sorely needed for South Sudan to move forward as a Nation. The UN Mission in South Sudan is in need of assets such as Helicopters (Only 3 from Rwanda are currently on station at this time). and even Ground Forces and Police.

That is a wrap for now.

Things under the Radar

2013-02-28T14:52:53Z

Earlier this week the Great Lakes Policy Forum held a two day event here in Washington regarding the contentious situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There was a sense of optimism since the event began less than 24 hours after a Accord was signed in Addis setting up a Framework for Peace.

The Issues that were highlighted were Security Sector Reform and the issues that plague FARDC. The other issue was how the US and other International Actors can have a positive Influence during this process. The Confused Eagle was able to ask two questions at these events.

First question regarded SSR. We know that there has been an emphasis on retraining and Integrating FARDC. However that is only one third of the problem. There are issues plaguing the National Police and the Intelligence Services as well. The question posed was are some of the same negative factors affecting the Army at this time also affecting the Police and the Intelligence Services.

At this time there is Legislation currently in Parliament that will set up the apparatus to oversee the training and development of the National Police. At this time there has been no action taken on this. This needs to occur. The Intelligence Services were not even discussed. A professional service would have caught the M23 Rebellion weeks before it occured.

The Second Question was in reply to comments made by a representative from the Ugandan Embassy. The Statement was made that the Allied Democratic Forces was still a threat to Uganda and still holding out in the Eastern DRC. The question was asked when was the last time the ADF launched an Operation. The reply was that the group has conducted 3 low scale Assassinations in Uganda. Not something you would break 120 fighters out of
a Congolese Prison for.

There was another briefing about the Peacekeeping Mission in Liberia. Starting this year the UN starts to reduce the number of Peacekeepers in the Country. At this time there are two factors that could create havoc and undo some of the work that the UN and Liberian Government have accomplished so far.

These issues are the situation along the border with Ivory Coast. There have been a series of cross border raids. Some of the Militant Groups have a core of Liberian Mercs so they are well trained. The second factor that may cause issues is the Timber Industry. Remember the phrase Private Use Permits we will hear that again.

President Bashir of Sudan made a huge gaffe recently. There have been reports that Militants from Mali have been using Darfur as a transit point. Recently at a Press Conference in Khartoum he was asked about this. His reply was that they are not Militants from Mali, but that they were Rebels from the Central African Republic. This was not a great statement to make.

The Letter

2013-02-22T18:47:30Z

As expected President Obama sent a letter to Speaker of the House John Boehner and the President Pro Tem of the United States Senate announcing his decision to deploy 100 US Military Personnel to Niger.

This move is being made to provide security for the new US Military Installation that will provide UAV support for the currently French led Mission in Niger which is expected to be turned over to the African Forces shortly. In the eyes of some people this just another step in the Militarization of US Policy towards Africa.

After the raid in Algeria and the increasing attacks by Islamist Extremists in Nigeria it has become clear that the US has a HUMINT Problem in the Sahel. Coverage by Satellites has not been adequate and the proposed deployment of a large number of Ground Forces is not in the cards at this point in time. So sending in UAVs with Small contingents of Special Forces will be the way to go in the future.

the other day I attended an event at Brookings which was a preview of the upcoming Elections in Kenya. These elections take place within a fortnight. (aka two weeks.) The question is now what did we learn?

The ICC indictments will have an impact on the Presidential Level. The reports that unknown parties approached the Chief Justice and threatened him if Uhuru Kenyatta was not a candidate is not a good omen.

We have to remember that if there is violence in Kenya after the cycle is run then Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda will suffer some economic injury like they did back in 2007.

The Editor and writer of Confused Eagle asked about what impact Somalia will have on the Elections. We know that Kenyan Forces are in Somalia assisting with Stability Ops and dealing with Al-Shaabab. Also there will be an impact on the Land Issue as well. Some of the Ransom money from Somali Pirates are being used to acquire the best real estate in Mombasa.

The kicker is in the Campaign itself. There is a copious amount of cash in this election cycle. It is believed that Campaign Finance Reform may be an issue that the next Government of Kenya will have to deal with. Another point of interest is the silence by the American Evangelicial Groups that worked hard in an attempt to defeat the Current Constitution. They have been silent so far. Unless they see CFR as their next big fight in Kenya....

Two Visitors

2013-02-09T15:23:32Z

Earlier this week two visitors came to Washington from Africa. These gentlemen represented two different branches of Government. One represented a National level of Governance the other did so on a state level.

The Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Matata Ponyo Mapon addressed an overflow crowd at the Wilson Center in the heart of the Federal Triangle. His remarks covered the Security Situation in the Kivu Provinces. One can almost expect how the remarks would turn out when the subject matter was released.

The Minister stated that the DRC is having success with badly needed economic and financial reforms to ensure Economic Stability. However there was no mention of any effort to restore the Rule of Law in the problematic Eastern Part of the County which is currently being plagued by an Insurgency influenced by Rwanda. So far according the figures released by the Prime Minister the DRC has spent $150 Million in an effort to defeat this latest rebellion.

A representative of the State Department states the the current position of the United States is to support a stable DRC. The Administration feels that it is imperative that regional states also support a stable DR Congo as well.

One statement that was interesting was when the PM stated that FARDC was some of the problem issues in the Eastern DRC. First of all I don't believe that this statement would be uttered in Kinshasa. Secondly it shows how fragile the DRC really is at this point of time. lastly it can be seen as several nations pouring money into a money pit when it comes to the FARDC.

Switching gears to the State Level visitor to Washington: Emmanuel Etewa Uduaghan who is the current Governor of Delta State spoke at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies here in Washington on the very same day as the DRC Prime Minister.

Some of the highlights of his remarks include:

The actual date of the Inter-Ethnic conflict began back in 1997 then spread to the Delta region in 2004 where upon the rise of the Militant Groups began.

Control of Key Resources is a key factor to the situation.

At this time Oil Production has dropped from 2.3 Million Barrels per day to a current level of 700,000 Barrels per day. Having the Oil Industry participate in improvements in Infrastructure and Human Capital Development is key at this point of time.

there are plenty of other resources available in the Delta.

Also the Governor feels that PSCs do have a future in Nigeria. He used the recent kidnapping in Alabama as an example. He states that if that incident occured in his home state that they do not have the adequate resources to deal with the problem at this time.

Mission Creep?

2013-01-30T16:56:04Z

Has anyone noticed the way the US support for the French led intervention in Mali is gradually increasing? First of all it was supposed to be providing Intel and other support services.

Then came word that US Transports were ferrying French and African Troops to Bamako. (BTW the French have asked for more African Troops and International Observers...) Following that came word that American Tankers were conducting mid-air refueling for French Fighters conducting Air Support Operations against the Islamist Insurgents.

Earlier this week the New York Times ran an item which stated that the US was looking for a West African Host for UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). Both Burkina Faso and Niger were mentioned as possible host nations for the operations. It was announced today that Niger will be the host of these unique weapons platforms. This makes the 4th conflict ( Somalia,Kony and the recently approved used for MONUCSO in the Congo) where the US will be using UAVs.

I remember when I was younger and people would see the US in a situation very similar to this and start hollering "Mission Creep". Where are these voices now? Or are they concerned about a recent report that stated that over 200,000 Libyan Fighters remain unaccounted for since the death of Qadaffi?

It has been some time but did anyone actually follow the Mutiny that occurred earlier this month in Eritrea? It seems that there is a textbook to launch such an operation: Gather some disaffected and in some cases underpaid enlisted men and/or junior officers, have them March on the Ministry of Information or another State Media Outlet to seize it then make their demands and wait for the outcome.

But the fact that this happened in Eritrea did catch people by surprise. The Country has a love/hate relationship not only with the United States but also with Israel,Iran and Ethiopia. The current ruler has been accused of supplying arms and equipment to Al-Shaabab in Somalia as wells supporting Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir.

The Situation in the Central African Republic is still in the simmering stage. It appears that there is some problems with the Proposed Power sharing deal as the ruling party seeks to occupy more positions within the Cabinet that the current deal calls for. Another reason for concern is the recruitment and use of Child Soldiers in the conflict.

MSF reports today that fighting between FARDC and the Mai-Mai Militias are creating another health crisis in the country. I wonder if this will be raised when the Prime Minister speaks at the Wilson Center here in Washington a week from today....

Drones to Congo

2013-01-25T18:38:43Z

Yesterday the United Nations Security Council voted to approve use of UAVs to support the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It is interesting to see that this vote took place while John Kerry was having his Confirmation Hearings in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Senator Kerry was asked during his testimony regarding the use of UAVs as a plank of US Policy. He stated that the use of Drones and Foreign Deployment of US Forces should not define the Foreign Policy of the United States by themselves.

At the same time of the UNSC decision regarding UAVs the American Security Project was holding an event regarding the use of these platforms. A report by this organization suggests that there are two ways to due analysis. One is to study the immediate tactical effects and the other way is to study the long-term strategic consequences.

These two levels of analysis contain data focusing what is revealed and not revealed to have a critical and informed debate about their uses. At this time UAVs provide a long term challenge to current policy decision that are not yet fully understood an all US Policy decisions at this time.

One problem that will be brought to light is the information gathered by the US Drones which will be under UN Command and the host nations where the missions will be launched from. Will the intelligence gathered by the machines be kept by the US to protect US interests and allies if the need arises?

Switching to another concern: Sometime Next Month the Parliament in Burundi will vote on whether or not to alter how the TRC is currently operating. The current proposals include limiting Foreign Observers and the access to the commission by Civil Society Organizations. This idea along with the slow repatriation of refugees some of whom are returning for the first time since the crisis in 1982 could result in problems for Burundi.

Another decision that may have been caused by the inaction of the Obama Administration. South Sudan and Ethiopia have reportedly reached a Military Defense Pact. When it comes to South Sudan they believe that their regional neighbors are more reliable than the US is. What a change since 2005.

It has been 20 years

2013-01-18T20:59:51Z

For the first time in 20 years the United States recognizes the fact that there is a functioning Government in Somalia. This statement sounds simple enough but what does it mean?

After all there has been two decades of anarchy, famine and invasions by Ethiopia that have occurred. It is true now that there is a functioning Government. It is reportedly gaining strength and occupying more territory with the assistance of peacekeepers from AMISOM and Kenyan and Ethiopian Troops that have occupied key crossroads and ports.

Politically and even to an extent from an Economic Point of view the actions of the Obama Administration are a huge blessing and even a sign of faith. This will undoubtedly come true when/if the World Bank starts ponying up Money for badly needed Infrastructure projects. Some projects are already underway due to the generous actions of both China and Turkey.

How will this play out in Puntland and Somaliland and the degree of autonomy has yet to be seen at this juncture.

The other day outgoing Undersecretary of State Johnnie Carson spoke at the Wilson Center in Washington. His remarks covered the achievements of the Obama Administration in Africa during the previous four years. During the Q & A portion Mr. Carson was asked a question about Equatorial Guinea.

He prefaced his answer by chastising analysts and activists not to base their assessment of EG on a book published by the World Bank 25 years ago and called Tropical Gangsters. It appears that the Undersecretary did not watch the Filthy Rich Documentary that was shown on CNBC last year and also showed how the Obiang Family hid their wealth around the world after skimming it from the Treasury.

Mr. Carson did say that there was room for improvement in the Human Rights Situation in the Country but his answer left people wondering. Its interesting to know that the Sullivan Foundation has ceased operations after their controversial summit in Malapo.

Mr Carson was critical of M23 and their rebellion in the Kivus and would not directly condemn Rwanda for supporting the Insurgency either.

Uh-Oh Franco-American

2013-01-16T15:17:25Z

Within the last week the unique Franco-American Partnership regarding Africa has been highlighted twice.

First was the failed French Raid in Somalia. This effort to rescue a kidnapped French Intelligence Officer (who may or may not have been killed.) led to the deaths of two French Commandos and 17 Somali Citizens. President Obama acting under authority of the War Powers Act notified Congress of the US role in this effort.

The President stated that the Action he directed the US Military to take was to provide Combat Aircraft for cover during this operation. There are no reports of US Planes firing on any ground targets in the time frame presented by the Administration. If this is the case then why send the letter to Congress?

Compare this to the situation in Mali when six days ago French Aircraft launched a series of Airstrikes to support the Malian Army against that insurgency. In relatively short order a contingent of African Forces will arrive to augment the French forces. The French will beef up their forces to an estimated 2,500 soldiers plus a contingent of Special Forces from Canada.

Outgoing Secretary of Defense Panetta has announced that no US Ground Forces would be part of this Multi-National Effort. So it appears that the Dagger Brigade will not be involved. So what about the US Special Forces that were already in Mali when the Coup occurred last year? They were ordered to maintain a low profile. Could they be in action as well?

In an interesting move the US has suggested to South Sudan that it should move some of its Petroleum to Market using Lorries instead of the pipeline North to Sudan. That is an interesting concept.......

Forecast 2013

2013-01-12T15:16:12Z

Earlier this week the Confused Eagle attended the Africa Forecast 2013 at the Brookings Institution here in Washington, D.C. One concern regarding Africa stuck out more than most.

Laura Seay who posts on the Blog Texas in Africa (Which is a great insight into the Politics of the Great Lakes Region.) made an interesting comment regarding Education. She said that it was a positive development with the increase of the number of Children being educated.

The Concern is with the Curriculum. In Several Nations this has not been updated since they gained Independence. With the current evolution in Technology on a weekly scale it seems this could pose a problem for both the development of these nations as well as making it easier for Insurgent Groups and Religious Extremists to recruit youth who currently feel disenfranchised with the current system. It probably will be more cost-effective to invest in Education than propping up tottering Governments and training Military Forces.

Another area of concern is Food Distrubution. Some Nations make it impossible to sell surplus Food Staples across borders by imposing huge tariffs and other restrictions. They do this in order to maintain an adequate food supply to prevent their country from starving. There is a need for improvements in the Transportation System as well across Africa. Reforms in both of these areas could reduce a lot of suffering across Africa.

It has been announced that the United Nations wishes to deploy UAVs (Unmanned Air Vehicles) to support Peacekeeping Missions such as the one in the DRC. The United States is reportedly going to deploy these weapons soon to the Congo.

Here is the question: When the Confirmations hearings for the Nominees for Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Hagel begin will this deployment and any potential oversight here in Washington be raised at all?

The French began Operations in Mali yesterday. I am hearing that the Pentagon is weighing all options about supporting this effort. Meanwhile 15 members of the Michigan National Guard are headed to Liberia as part of the program that matches the National Guard of a State with one particular Country.

confusedeagle @ 2013-01-05T11:39:00

2013-01-05T16:39:49Z

First of all the Confused Eagle wishes that one and all has a Happy and Blessed 2013. However we begin this update with one of the final acts of the US Treasury in 2012 (but yet occured earlier this week).

Acting persuant to Executive Order 13413 which places sanctions on individuals or entities known to contribute to the conflict in the Eastern Part of the Congo, the US Treasury has acted and placed both M23 and the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda or what remains of the pre-Kagame regime that killed over 800,000 in a 30 day period) on this list.

It has been well documented about how M23 which basically is the CNDP plus members of FARDC that mutinied after President Kabila reneged on a Peace Deal ( A fact that is conviently left out by some) earlier this year. This action was the only form of redress that these discontented Soldiers felt they had open to them.

The speed in which and the relative ease by which they launched their campaign to capture the City of Goma in Nord Kivu shows how poorly Governance is in the DRC. But most people only see that this is a Militia that is on the rampage.

The Move against the FDLR is an interesting on. The fact that they are still in the field is a problem. But who are they loyal to? There have been reports that they have been allied to FARDC and even some reports that some of the fighters that have surrendered to the Rwandan Authorities have been recycled back into the DRC to attack their former comrades-in-arms.

Right Now the African Union is preparing to send in some peacekeepers. There is word that the UN is going to augment its mission there as well( not a good track record over the last decade.) It now at the Point where the phrase National Unity Government is being bantered about yet again in the Congo.

Will it work this time?

End of 2012

2012-12-26T18:03:51Z

The Editor of Confused Eagle wishes that everyone had a Merry Christmas, and wishes for a Happy Kwanzza and New Year.

The Situation within the Central African Republic has deteriorated over the last fortnight. It began with an new Rebel Alliance being formed and they began a determined march on the Capital City of Bangui. At last report 9 cities have fallen into the hands of the insurgents with the most recent capture occuring on the 23rd. On that day the key city of Bambari fell to insurgent forces.

Last week Forces from neighboring Chad entered the CAR in an effort to stop this rebellion. Earlier this summer Chadian Forces entered the Country in an effort rein in some Chadian Militias that were plaguing Southern Chad. Earlier this year the UN reported that there were over 300 Militias operating or based in the CAR. Recent reports indicate that troops from Gabon will soon arrive to assist in this counterinsurgency program.

The situation is so dire in Bangui that the US Special Forces based in Fizi are planning to assist in the defense of the Capital. This is a case of they are already there in the region lets put them to use so that they can earn their pay. Earlier this year there were reports that the Special Forces deployed to locate Joseph Kony were spending more of their time in the Bars of Kampala then actually doing what they were deployed for.

The Country is poor, the infrastructure is in a bad state. Its almost like Haiti has been placed into Central Africa. There is change on the horizon but will it be for the good?

Last Year Daveed Gartenstein-Ross wrote a book (think 2011) entitled Bin Laden's Legacy Why We're Still Losing the War on Terror. There are two distinct Passages that deal with African Issues. The first deals with Somalia. This was a year before the Transitional Federal Government was able to expand its Power outside of Mogadishu and Baidoa.

The second passage deals with Al-Qaida and its war on Oil. This specific passage deals with Nigeria. Although Boko Haram is not mentioned as a threat the actions of MEND and their campaign against the infrastructure in the South was highlighted as how disruptive these attacks can be.

On the whole this is a excellent book. One anyone concerned with Counterterrorism and other issues might find worth the read.

Speaking of Nigeria: 12 People went to church yesterday in Madiguri and Yobe and were killed by extremists....

Behind the Scenes

2012-12-21T13:49:33Z

First of all the Editor of Confused Eagle would be rude if he didn't acknowledge the Birthday Greeting that he received yesterday. Thanks again to one and all for the blessings.

Earlier this month Isaiah Abraham a prominent Blogger from South Sudan who was a critic of the South Sudanese Government was assassinated in his home. It has been announced recently that officials of the FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) are now in the Country to assist in the investigation.

Having the FBI in the country to organize this investigation will be seen by critics of another instance of the US intervening in an situation that is a domestic matter. However it can also be seen as a young Democratic State being place into a new situation that it was not prepared for yet. We shall see how this investigation unfolds.

Word has been trickling out about another offensive in the Central African Republic by that Nation's Army with support from the Army of neighboring Chad. No word on any involvement of France however. Earlier this year there was another offensive by the Militaries of these two states with French Aid.

Things may have taken a turn for the worst. The Hit and Run Blog on Reason states that US Forces have deployed to the outskirts of the Capital City Bangui. There are many ways that this could be read. First of all at last count that there were over 300 Militias operating in the CAR. (This includes the LRA which the AU and UN are begging for more money for but that is another point.)

Currently American Forces are assisting the CAR Government in maintaining a defense in the South of the Country. Whether or not this mission is part of the LRA Bill has yet to be seen. However maintaining a Stable Government in Central Africa is Paramount at this point of time.

Meanwhile 90,000 are suffering as a result of the fall of Goma last month to M23. Instablility reigns supreme in the region as a whole. Therefore in this context the efforts in the CAR do make sense.

More Briefings

2012-12-15T15:17:28Z

This past week there were two different briefings regarding the Situation between Sudan and South Sudan.

First of all a group of Episcopal and Lutheran Clergymen gave a briefing to Congressional Staffers. This briefing was organized by both the International Religous Freedom and the Sudan Caucuses. The mission gave a bleak assessment of the current situation along the common border of both nations.
The destruction of various Churches in the North was also raised as well.

The Clergymen are seeking greater investment in both Countries. The clergy also raised the contentious Security Issues in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and in Abeyi. The situation is so dire that commerce and access to Medical Care have been shout down.

Later on in the week there was a briefing at CSIS by representatives of the International Crisis Group and the ENOUGH Project. In late November ICG released a report titled Sudan: Major Reform or More War which deals with the current situation in Khartoum. Some of the findings show that Sudan itself is in crisis. The Economy is in such dire straits that any potential Oil Deal with Juba will only delay the collapse of the Economy not arrest it.

There has been some talk of a potential Coup within the ruling National Congress Party or a popular insurrection to occur that could actually facilitate
change. In fact any movement along this line could actually cause more violence to occur within the country.

There has been some questions about what the United States can do. First of all the President needs to appoint a New Special Envoy. Princeton Lyman is vacating this position. Another thing it should do is to work with regional partners to allow Medical Supplies and Foodstuffs are delivered to those in need.

The Advocacy Groups and Clergymen did agree that the Security Issues need to be addressed as well as encouraging Investment in both Countries. Not an easy thing for the Next Secretary of State to have delivered to them just as they start their term.

A Week in Washington

2012-12-08T16:12:54Z

This was one of those weeks here in Washington that those who are activists dealing with African Issues felt like there wasn't enough time to attend all of the events.

On Monday Carter Ham the Commanding General of AFRICOM gave a Presentation about current Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa. There were two key items that he spoke about. He is not optimistic about the upcoming UN/ECOWAS Mission to Mali succeeding. Another point which the Media did not really cover was his remarks about the DRC. Gen Ham stated that the situation in the Kivus needs to have a Diplomatic Resolution not a Military Solution.

The next day The Senate Foreign Relations Committee under the stewardship of Sen Coons of Delaware. The Topic of Discussion was the situation in Mali. I wonder if Undersecretary Carson was able to allay the fears of many who are concerned with the Mali Mission. The Main Objective will be to retrain and equip the MNLA and then send it back into the North to restore order. Previous Governments did grant a modicum of Autonomy to the Tauregs and other Leaders providied that they provided for the Nation's Benefit. This factor plus the lack of involvement by Nigeria are a recipe for Trouble.

On Wed. John McCain the Senator from Arizona and Former Republican Presidential Candidate gave a keynote speech. The Writer of Confused Eagle did ask with the support of M23 by Rwanda and the lack of Good Governance by Kabila in Kinshasa as factors of the crisis why wasn't this creating enough of a buzz here in Washington. The following question was about the situation in the Nuba Mountains and that unfolding Humanitarian Fiasco.

Senator McCain did say that the apathy of the current administration towards Africa is tantamount to Racism. This statement is a chilling indictment of the Obama Administration and its current Priorities.

The Following day Ed Royce the Incoming Chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee told this blog that all efforts will be made to hold both Kagame and Kabila responsible for what is occuring in the Kivus.

On Friday the Secretary-General of the Mano River Association spoke at the National Endowment for Democracy. She gave a Security assessment of the region which had just had Elections (Sierra Leone). She also talked about the role of women in peacekeeping in the region. All Good News.

Upcoming Events

2012-12-01T15:35:44Z

There are some late moving developments regarding African Policy on Capitol Hill. First of all it can be confirmed as reported here on Confused Eagle that California Congressman Ed Royce will take over the Chairmanship of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

It appears that the situations in both Mali and in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo will both be the subject of Congressional Hearings. The Senate will hold hearings regarding the situation in Northern Mali on Dec. 5th @ 9 am. The UN has authorized the African Union to have a one year stabilization mission to take place in the West African Country.

Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Chris Coons of Delaware and several other members of the US Senate had added a amendment to the long awaited Defense Authorization Bill for FY 2013. This will place sanctions against those providing financial, material or technical support for the M23 Rebel Group.(It is amendment 3199 on the NDAA if you wish to read it.) It is also a notice to a couple of Nations specifically (Rwanda and Uganda hint hint).

Also the House side is planning its own hearings regarding the M23 Insurgency. These hearings are expected to occur before December 11th of this year. There is a sense of frustration on the Hill regarding the silence of the State Department regarding this.

Also on November 28th the Senate Foreign Relations Committee started the Process to nominate a new US Ambassador to Kenya. This sounds like a splendid idea since Elections are scheduled to be run there in March 2013 as well. We shall see how this process moves forward as well.

The Kampala Fallout

2012-11-24T16:34:31Z

The Regional Summit to address the capture of the City of Goma by the M23 Militia has concluded in Kampala. So what has happened?

First of all President Kagame of Rwanda did not show up for this. He was represented by his Foreign Minister. President Kabila attended this summit as did the Presidents of Kenya and Tanzania. Basically the leaders called upon the Rebels to stop all "Warmaking Activities" and cease the talk of overthrowing a legitimately elected Government. (If you believe that Kabila won a fair election I have a bridge for sale.)

There are also a couple of demands also. First M23 has 48 hours to withdraw to a position 20 km from Goma. The Airport will have a Garrison comprised of One Company from a Neutral Force (SADC), One Company from FARDC and the other Company from M23. Goma town will be garrisoned by one Bafttalion of FARDC and the DRC National Police. This begs to ask who will the loyalties of the Police and the FARDC Battalion be with.

The Police that were disarmed inside Goma by M23 are to be rearmed and resume their duties.

MONUCSO will provide Security in the New Neutral Zone between Goma and the newly captured territory that M23 Possesses. (MONUCSO has done a wonderful job so far in this just don't ask a Congolese Person) All of this will be witnessed by the Military Heads of the DRC,Rwanda and Uganda.

South Africa is going to handle the logistics in this effort. Tanzanian Troops will not take part. It is expected to have Nigeria,Algeria and other AU States to be asked to support this effort.

It appears that the regional actors are willing to maintain peace at any cost. No mention of atrocities committed by either side against non-combatants including the women who have suffered so much since 1998 was made either. This communique and proposal says that M23 can have all that they want except for Goma. Why is that?

One other key fact not discussed. Earlier this Month A Burundian Intelligence Officer was killed performing his duties in Sud Kivu. Burundian Insurgents are also holed up in the region. This will be a key factor down the road.

Another thing at the very end of the Communique was the fact that South Sudan is now a member of the ICGLR.

What's Next

2012-11-21T18:17:07Z

In a previous posting of Confused Eagle the upcoming changes for the Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs was reported.

It can now be reported about who the ranking members (Democratic Leadership) will be for the upcoming Congress. It reportedly has come down to Brad Sherman of California and Eliot Engel of New York State. Word reaching Confused Eagle is that we can expect Congressman Engel to be the ranking member on the Committee. Congressman Sherman faced a brutal campaign against a prior Committee Chair Howard Berman that reportedly lead to fisticuffs.

It is apparent that Congresswoman Bass of California will retain her position on the Africa subcommittee as well.

Now on to pressing matters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. By now we all know that the Insurgents known as both M23 and the Congolese Revolutionary Army has captured the Main Eastern City of Goma. This is a paramount move for several reasons. First this city is considered to be the Hometown of President Kabila. Secondly its a Provinicial Capital (Nord Kivu) and finally its close proximity to Rwanda.

So now the question is whats next? Already there are 120,000 new refugees right now that need food and shelter. This will further tax an already extended effort to provide these necessisties. The risk of disease will also increase as well. France is howling about the mandate that MONUCSO had in the first place. Already one Congolese Advocacy Group has called on the UN to leave the Country as well.

So what about the Rebels what will they do? They have announced that they will march on Kinshasa. This will follow the blueprint that the late Laurent Kabila used to dethrone the tottering regime of Mobutu Sese Seko. It is doable but it seems to be more practical for them to build up their defenses for a FARDC Counteroffensive, Move South and take Bukavu and wait for Rwanda to take its seat on the UN Security Council in January.

We know that Presidents Kabila and Kagame have met recently with their counterpart in Uganda Mr. Museveni. Why wasn't there a presence by the UN or the African Union or even the Contact group on the Congo? This capture also plays into the narrative that the process to Balkanize the DRC is moving along let alone showing signs that it actually does exist.

It has been said that for those who forget it history does have a way of repeating itself. We appear to be witnessing it yet again.

Will the US Go into Mali?

2012-11-16T16:56:21Z

It is no secret that France will be leading the upcoming Mission by the United Nations to restore order in Northern Mali. We know that ECOWAS has agreed to commit 3500 Troops to the mission as well. According to the numbers there will 5,500 troops going in all together now.

France has also announced that it will not be providing Air Cover for the mission. Would the readers care to guess which country they are going to ask for this? It will not be Algeria. That country has had a lukewarm reception to this mission. This week the French will be in Stuttgart "consulting" with AFRICOM about this issue. General Ham has stated that He will listen and then send it up through the Chain of Command.

The US does have the capability to undertake such an Operation. Whether its done by UAVs based in West Africa or Airpower from either the Azores,Spain or even Italy there is plenty of opportunity to conduct this operation but the question is probably more of a when at this point of time then if. It has been alleged that the assassins of Ambassador Stevens are currently in hiding in Northern Mali.

Moving on to the DRC. The Administration has imposed sanctions against Sultani Makenga the current leader of M23 or the Congolese Revolutionary Army whichever the preference of those in the media choose to give. The question is whether or not these actions are more symbolic than substantive?

But here is a question that demands an answer. Mr. Makenga is being accused of using and recruiting Child Soldiers. This is a very heinous act. So why has the Democratic Republic of the Congo continued to receive waivers regarding this very act itself? The Government of Joseph Kabila recruits Child Soldiers as well. Where are the sanctions in this case?

Speaking of the situation in the Kivus: Who knows how the issue of Ugandan Support for the AMISOM (African Mission in Somalia) will play out. The Ugandans are upset over the issue of the Country being accused of supporting the second incantation of the CNDP. But does anyone see the Ugandan Military walking away from the extra money they are receiving from other sources (US and UN)?

At last report fighting between the insurgents and the coalition of FARDC and MONUCSO troops have killed at least 150 rebels.

Another potential crisis spot has to be Liberia. Posters have gone up around the country threatening a coup amongst other things. earlier postings of Confused Eagle have warned about the inability of the Government of President Sirleaf-Johnson to establish basic services outside of the Capital of Monrovia. This is another situation that needs to be watched.

There are also elections upcoming in both Sierra Leone and in Ghana.