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May. 25th, 2012

A Day at Brookings

We all know of the Brookings Institution. It is generally left-center Think Tank here in Washington near Dupont Circle on Massachusetts Ave. Earlier this week they held two African themed events (After All the G-8 were in town).

The First Event was itself a very interesting concept. It was regarding how the Warning Signs of Trouble that emerged in the Horn (lack of rain, food security etc...) prior to the collapse of the Siad Barre Regime in Somalia and that have returned intermittently since then have been ignored in West Africa. 

Before the latest round of coups that hit the Region (notably Mali) there have been concerns and reports from the UN and other agencies warning that the current stockpiles of food were in a critical stage. Lackluster Rains during the rainy season last year did not bode well either. Donations from the wealthy to both the Horn and the Sahel have been drops in the bucket compared to the generous donations raised after the Haiti Earthquake and the Southeast Asian Tsunami. This is part of the CNN effect. 

Better coordination to prevent another such event on this scale or prevention will go along way to save lives.

The Second Meeting which occured later that afternoon were remarks offered by the Kenyan Vice-President and Minister of Internal Affairs the Hon Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. During this presentation several key aspects of US Policy towards East Africa were revealed. There was a delegation of Kenyan Parliamentarians and Embassy Staff there and the Rwandan Ambassador to the US was in attendance there.

He started by stating how pleased he was to be able to interact with the Kenyan Community in the United States. He had just arrived earlier from Boston. His initial remarks were based on how Kenya has moved forward as a Nation after the Post-Election Violence in 2008. As a matter of fact he described how "He sees the Light at the End of the Tunnel." 

He praised the incursion by Kenyan Troops into Somalia. He states that Kenya wants a stable  secure Somalia. He praised the efforts of the AMISOM mission and the Countries supporting it (Uganda,Burundi,Djibouti and Sierra Leone). He also praised the efforts of Ethiopia in assisting in the stabilization operation. One hope that was raised was the eventual appearance of Nigerian Troops in Somalia. With the reports of a link between Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab could the recent offensive in Northern Nigeria be an effort to keep the Nigerian Army out of Somalia?

Another statement that was made indicates there was shock in Nairobi that the State Department was not more supportive of the Kenyan Incursion into Somalia. That is an interesting point to ponder. An even better question for Mitt Romney to ask during a debate as well.

South Sudan also came up. Kenyan Diplomacy with Bashir was revealed. Bashir made the statement that Kenya has nothing to worry about since "The Nile doesn't flow in their direction" So if there is a Sudan-South Sudan War it probably be more likely fought over Water Rights regarding the Nile than over the Helig Oilfields or Blue Nile or Kordofan.

The Writer of this blog was allowed the chance to ask the final question of the event. The question was a two part question.

The First part dealt with the increasing defense budgets in Uganda and Kenya. Were they designed to monitor each other? or to assist South Sudan when necessary?

Second part dealt with the Mineral Smuggling from the DRC via Kenya and what was being done to interdict the flow.

As to the First part Uganda is not a threat to Kenya and that the Country was reequipping due to ongoing Operations in Somalia. The US should not worry..... ( A similar question asked to a Delegation of South Sudanese Ministers garnered a similar response. So what is it about their relationship that they do not want the US to know about? Or is it that they have no faith in support from the current White House?) 

Regarding the Mineral Smuggling the matter is under investigation and that they are working with President Kabila to end the process.



May. 21st, 2012

Security

Before the G-8 Summit at Camp David over the weekend President Obama took the time to launch a new initiative towards Africa. 

This initiative which has a cost of $ 3 Billion will address the contentious issue of Food Shortages in Africa. The specific areas that will be addressed are food security and increasing food production across the continent.  The President was quoted " There is no reason why Africa cannot feed itself". This sentiment is not relatively new however. There are those of us who remember Live Aid back in the 1980s that was organized to address the situation within Ethiopia.

The President also stated that "its a moral imperative, its an economic imperative and its a security imperative as well. The best case for it being a security imperative as well is in the Sahel. It is believed that Niger may just have enough food to last through to the end of the Calendar year. However if the current influx of refugees fleeing post-coup Mali and the Insurgent ridden Northern part of Nigeria increases than the date of dread may have to be moved up sooner.

Having Private US interests invest in Agricultural Projects are a great first step. The State Department should act as a facilitators not as shills. We have seen evidence of that through the Wikileaks Cable particularly on behalf of Monsanto in the African Great Lakes region. But this effort should be more cost effective in the long run then banking AU and UN Peacekeeping Missions throughout Africa.

Speaking of Security Elements of the Texas National Guard conducted a training exercise for Burundian Troops preparing to deploy to East Africa. The Texans were preparing these forces for duty in Somalia. The area of training which occurred in late March and Early April dealt with First Aid in a Combat Situation. 

AFRICOM and USAID also recently took part in program in Burkina Faso. The purpose of this was to assess how the Country could respond to a Pandemic situation. The situation in Burkina Faso does not get the proper coverage that it should. During the Crisis in Ivory Coast last year the Country faced more than one mutiny by the Military over lack of pay, had a crackdown against both students and the Press that was shielded by the International Media.

Burkina Faso is a key country right now in an unstable region of Africa. It will be affected by the coup in Mali just like the election crisis in Ivory Coast affected it last year. We in the West may not see it directly but the question is when will we hear about this?



May. 16th, 2012

Mid-Week

It is the middle of the Week here in Washington. Here are some things that managed to fly under the Radar yet again in our media.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame was at William Penn University in Iowa over the past weekend. He received a Doctor of Human Letters from the Quaker Institution. While this was going on Independent Media Outlets (that are still allowed to publish by the way) were reporting that an 18 year old youth named Mutabazi Sadic had passed away from his Injuries.

What happened was that this young man set himself on fire after being beaten by Inkeragutabara and Local Defense in Gisenyi. The passing occured roughly one week after the incident reportedly took place. This is a disturbing piece of evidence and shows that the Great Lakes Region of Africa is unstable as well.

There are three pieces of news regarding Nigeria and Boko Haram as well. 
 
First several African Advocacy Groups are preparing a sign-on letter to Secretary of State Clinton urging her not to have the State Department declare the Militant Group as Terrorists. They feel that by doing this will limit the activities of the United States to pursuing a Military Option. One proposed action is to freeze their assets.

Speaking of assets. Reports from Nigeria state that the group has received a total of N40 Million in Financial Aid from an unnamed insurgent group based in Algeria. If this can be independently verified then some of the fears in Langley and on Capitol Hill may be coming true. Its sad to see but in some situations the Decision Makers can be warned in advance of a serious situation developing. More often than not the worst case scenario actually occurs among much hand wringing.

One fear that is being mentioned on Capitol Hill is that this group will reach out to the Nigerian Diaspora and recruit fighters just like Al-Shaabab has been able to do in the Somali Communities Nationwide. There have been several events at think tanks here in Washington regarding the situation in West Africa as well. All this takes place as reports are indicating that both Bank of America and Wells Fargo have reportedly frozen the assets of the Nigerian Embassy here in Washington. The reason that this has occurred is the "Suspicious" handling of roughly $3.6 Million. The timing of this cannot be any worse for the Embassy.

Regarding some of the equipment that the US is leaving behind in Afganistan. Wouldn't it be better to lease some of them to the UN for Missions in Africa? these vehicles could be put to good use in places such as Mogadishu perhaps right now. I mean if the UK can donate vehicles to Karzai then we can donate or lease them to the UN. Just sayin....





May. 12th, 2012

A week in Washington

Earlier this week CSIS held an interesting event. The title was Donors and the War on Terror in East Africa.Specifically it was to determine how the actions of the Ugandan and Kenyan Governments were seen in both Washington and London.

It should be noted in some cases both Kampala and Nairobi have undertaken some similar actions such as their intervention in Somalia and being part of the Coalition in the GWOT. However there is a great dichotomy in how the actions that are being seen. Part of the answer has to be the PR that the Ugandans have been able to create in Washington Specifically. One key piece of evidence is the LRA Law which has led to the deployment of 100 US Soldiers to Central Africa.

The Ugandans have used the Media and other sources to get their point across and thus be able to receive copious amounts of Military and Financial Aid. Kenya however has been been seen as a weaker partner after the failure of a Counter Terror Bill that many felt was being imposed on them by the United States. Therefore Kenya has the image of not being as strong when it comes to counterterror operations and other key aspects that the US and the UK are looking for. It should be noted that Kenya has Presidential Elections planned for 2013 as well so this may not be the last we hear of Kenya in this light either.

Also this week the CE attended events regarding Human Rights in Africa where the Ambassadors to the US from Mali and Guinea were present. This meeting occurred before the current crackdown in Conakrey began. The remarks made by the Malian Ambassador at this meeting were rather predictable. He stated that Islamists were behind the rebellion that actually gathered steam after the Military Coup. It has come to light in the recent Transparency International Index of Nations that Mali slipped 40 points. Clearly something did occur in the last days of the previous Presidency.

The CE also attended an event at the Heritage Foundation as well regarding the situation in Mali. The presentation referred to the situation in Mali as being influenced by the collapse of the Libyan Government late last year and being a cancer in the region that cannot be allowed to fester. The Ambassador from Niger attended this event as well.

The plan by the Member States of the Lake Chad Basin Initiative to assist Nigeria deal with Boko Haram also came up as well. It has been reported that Boko Haram has assisted the Islamist Insurgents in the Gao area of Mali. Niger has had its own issues with Islamist Insurgencies and is now facing a Refugee crisis as well as some have fled into the Country. There is now concerns regarding whether or not Niger has enough food to last through the end of the calendar year as a result of the influx of refugees. This is an issue that should be nipped in the bud.

The DRC continues to fester as well as the troops that have mutinied after the call for the arrest of General Bosco Ntganda have announced that they have formed their own Militia. This is a situation that continues to not to improve politically.....


May. 7th, 2012

South Sudan

On Thursday Afternoon the Confused Eagle was honored to be part of a meeting at the Institute for Religion and Democracy here in Washington. Later that Afternoon the CE also took part of a meeting of the Security Working Group for the Advocacy Network for Africa. The Current Situation regarding South Sudan played a prominent role in both meetings.

The first meeting was actually a briefing involving South Sudanese Government Ministers and the New Charge D'Affaires here in the United States. The briefing started out by stating that recent fighting has displaced 60% of the Population in Abeyi. The Information then steadily grew worse.

The problems with an Independent State were then revealed. Issues such as lack of access to clean potable water, no paved roads, 70% of Children of Primary School age (Elementary here in the US) do not have access to Education and an overall lack of access to Medical Care were discussed. 

After that the topic of conversation switched to one of the main sources of tensions between Khartoum and Juba. That is one of the Mother's Milk of the Western Industrialized Society. This being Oil. As the reader probably is aware of the Sudan/South Sudan Border is one of the new emerging African Oil Fields. Negotiations after the Independence Referendum placed some of the Oil Fields in South Sudan while giving Khartoum control of the Pipelines.

One of the sources of tensions just happens to be the Helig Oil Fields. The ownership of this key Oil Field has yet to be proper defined. Last Month South Sudan seized these Oil Fields after bitter fighting which has led to stern action being taken by the UN Security Council.  At the ADNA meeting it was raised that this action may have cost South Sudan the Moral High Ground and forced the International Community to deal with Khartoum equally.

Another issue that was raised is Transit Fees. This is the cost per gallon of Oil that moves through a pipeline. Generally the cost is between 16 and 50 cents. The GOSS offered to pay 67 cents per gallon. To help offset the costs of potential lost Oil Revenue GOSS offered to pay over $2 Billion to Khartoum to help with lost Revenue. The IMF estimates that the proper cost is just under $8 Billion right now. Khartoum then demanded $10 Billion. The International Community offered to assist paying this but Khartoum has refused and started seizing the oil being shipped North.

These acts forced GOSS to shut down Oil Production from December 2011 to Feb of this year. It has actually returned Money to Oil Companies due to lack of production. GOSS feels that as long as Khartoum Bombs and attacks them no one will notice.

I asked the Minister about the reports that both Uganda and even Kenya are preparing steps to assist them. The Minister then smiled and discussed the ways that Uganda was trying to help them. He seemed surprised that Kenya was taking similar steps or the concern of that Government due to tensions.

One final note. It was raised during the ADNA Meeting about how the Clooney Sentinel Project is getting their imagery for their project. Another concern was how to maintain the flow of Humanitarian Aid into South Sudan if/when the UN Security Council imposes Sanctions. 

It was also revealed that Kony is along the Chad-Darfur Border during these meetings as well.

There is concern among the "right"-leaning Religious Community that the White House will sell the South Sudanese Down the river.....

This isnt the last we will hear of South Sudan.


Apr. 28th, 2012

(no subject)

Earlier this week the House Foreign Relations Committee held its hearing regarding the LRA,
Boko Haram, Al Shabaab, AQIM and other threats to Africa. It was in the backdrop to this event that the announcement that the President was extending the deployment of the 100 US Military Advisors currently deployed to Central Africa to bring Joseph Kony to Justice.

During the hearings Congressman Connolly a Democrat from the Great Commonwealth of Virginia asked the Panelists a most pointed and relevant question. He asked if the UPDF (Ugandan Army) had the capacity to undertake two Military Missions at the same time. Currently the Ugandans comprise the largest contingents to AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) and the largest force currently in the field searching for Joseph Kony.

But if one reads the written remarks offered by the Congressman then he raises a very interesting point. The last paragraph in his remarks regarding the LRA threat has the following key sentence:If this conflict escalates to a full-fledged military engagement on the part of US Forces, then Congress ought to reexamine the conflict, pursuant to the legislative branch's authorities underlined in Article I of the Constitution.

According to Amanda Dory the Undersecretary of Defense for African Affairs:To be clear, the deployed US Forces do not have an operational role and are focused on advising and assisting host nation forces. This deployment is consistent with the Defense Strategic Guideline which states" Whenever possible, we will develop innovative, low-cost, and small-footprint approaches to achieve our security objectives on the continent, relying on exercises,rotational presence, and advisory capabilities."

Sources in Chad have informed the Confused Eagle that Kony and the LRA are poised to enter the Country. The threat which was passed on to President Deby by both the African Union and the United Nations is real and substantial. This could possibly mean that the LRA is once again going to operate in the field on behalf of the Sudanese Government.

In the past they have been used to attack Refugee Camps in Southern Darfur and to sow terror in what is now South Sudan. With tensions rising between Juba and Khartoum to the point that both Uganda and Kenya are planning on assisting the South, Khartoum has to be searching for Allies. Since Kony has been a proxy force for them Its not unreasonable to assume that Bashir reached out to him.

Which brings to mind another concern. US Forces are supposed to be analyzing Intelligence gathered by the AU Mission against Kony. If this is true then was this Info provided to the US? After all the AU/UN provided the warning to the Government of Chad. So is this a case of Museveni only providing what he wants to the US but in an amount only to keep the interest of the US piqued?

Once again at the hearing info was provided about the support that the US is giving to Nigeria to defeat Boko Haram. There was great disappointment in recent events in Mali as well. The fact that the main coup plotter being trained by the US under the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative was seen as a source of great disappointment as well. However there were no clear links discussed between the actions ongoing in both Nigeria and Mali.

We should keep an eye on Central Africa...




Apr. 21st, 2012

A Couple of Hearings

Earlier this week the Senate Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa held hearings regarding US policy towards entrenched African Leaders. A couple of points need to be addressed. First of all Senator Kerry the Chairman of the Full Foreign Affairs Committee attended the hearings. This itself is a rare feat.

During the opening phase of the hearings the Undersecretary of State Mr. Carson was peppered with questions regarding the current strategy towards the LRA. A recent item in the Washington Post was critical of the Mission. It was during this time that Senator Kerry announced that the following day a bipartisan group of Senators would reveal their support for the current strategy that has been drafted by the President.

It was also announced at that time by Chairman Kerry that he is sponsoring legislation along with Senator Boozman of Arkansas to expand and modernize the US State Department Rewards Program. Therefore it will be easier to theoretically to bring Warlords such as Joseph Kony to justice. The criteria that is mentioned is that the individuals that are targeted have to be charged with committing mass atrocities. The legislation is titled S. 2318.

Not to be outdone the House Foreign Affairs Committee will be holding a full committee hearing this coming Wed. The topic will be the LRA, Boko Haram, Al Shaabab, AQIM and other threats to Africa. It does make one wonder if the FDLR, CNDP and other actors are worthy of being discussed at this full committee hearing.

One thing is for certain. It appears that Congress is paying close attention to Africa. Even though it appears that it is giving a Rubber Stamp seal of approval to whatever action is being taken by the Administration. (And they say there is no bipartisanship here in Washington). 

There will be two other events next week that will be considered as attention grabbers. First CSIS is having an event regarding Angola. Now Angola is a country that they did a "Stress Test" upon to determine how stable the country is. I wonder if two key questions will be raised: 

1.) What role did Angola play in the recent coup in Guinea-Bissau? Angolan Troops abruptly left the country 72 hours before the event. The Coup planners also said that Foreign Interference as a factor in the event.

2.) Given the history between Angola and the DRC since the UNITA Insurgency I find it interesting that the UN has asked Angola to supply helicopters to both of the UN Missions in the DRC and South Sudan. 

We have learned that 3 Members of the US Special Forces were recently killed in an Automobile Accident in Bamako, Mali. Now considering that the three deceased were specialists in gathering Intelligence was this really an accident? The Pentagon is investigating but given the current state of affairs in Mali its awful damn interesting for this to have had happen..


Apr. 11th, 2012

(no subject)

Last week CNBC ran a documentary entitled Filthy Rich. It showed how several Dictators were hiding and spending ill-gotten funds here in the United States. One of those profiled was the son of President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang who has the reputation of being a playboy.

The US working along with France and Spain have been seizing assets that have been acquired by the Minister of Agriculture Teodoro Nguma Obiang Mangue. One of the possessions that is sought is a glove belonging to the late Michael Jackson. However this hasn't stopped the Obiangs from seeking retribution however.

The Obiangs have sought legal action against the groups that provided the information that allowed the French Police to raid an apartment in the Paris suburbs that belonged to the minister. They are also seeking redress from the French Government regarding the Police Action as well.

Recently a second strike was fired and this one is targeted against the Spanish. Recently a piece was published in Pravda attacking the Spanish Government and Media for attacking a Russian Businessman in Madrid who has close ties to Obiang. http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/05-04-2012/120998-financial_speculation-0/ is the link to the Story. In the past the Obiangs had close ties to the former Soviet Union. This is not that much of a stretch of the imagination to see this old alliance in force again.

Now the question becomes what action is coming against the United States? In particular the Justice Department which handles Asset Seizures? Its coming you can bank on it.

The International Media was highlighting (virtually no US Media talking) about reports that 100 Boko Haram Fighters were seen recently in the Northern Mali Town of Gao. This may play into the hands of those seeking an intervention into West Africa. Already France is talking about supporting an effort to stabilize Mali.

Boko Haram and its actions are a story that is not going away here in Washington. At least among the Thinktanks. Congress is paying some attention at least on the House Homeland Security Committee. But no one else is paying attention. What are they waiting for? Makes one wonder if they want another terror attack to originate from West Africa before anything will actually occur.

Malawi has a new President. Hopefully the situation in the Country will remain tranquil as the new leader moves into Her new role.

Apr. 4th, 2012

Deadlines....

We start with the situation in Mali. We know that the regional body ECOWAS determined that it
could not trust the Military Junta to restore Constitutional Government. It should be noted that since the capture of Timbaktu by the Tauregs and their Allies over the weekend leaves all of Northern Mali in the Hands of insurgents.

It is in this context that yesterday the US State Department called upon the rebels in the North to cease Military Operations in the North of the Country. However the Confused Eagle has learned that the Peace Corps is making preparations to leave Mali for the first time in over four decades. There has been no further details regarding the status of the US Special Forces that are currently in the country training their Malian Counterparts.

There are some questions that beg to be asked at this time. First of all with the number of refugees that have fled into neighboring Niger and Mauritania what is the internal situation in both of the Nations? We know that Niger has issues regarding Food Security and Mauritania has had issues with insurgents as well. Could they be the next trouble spots in West Africa? One can already picture the pundits screaming that this is blowback for the overthrow of the previous Regime in Libya and they do have a point.

Also yesterday the President authorized the release of funds up to $26 Million to assist the refugees affected by the recent spike in conflict along the Sudan-South Sudan Border. The latest estimates place the number of people affected at 140,000. In the Press Statement from the National Security Council that announced the release of these funds the Administration also called for both parties to restrain from the use of Conflict to address their border issues.

There is once again a call by Members of Congress to have Boko Haram declared a Terrorist Group. The Homeland Security Committee chaired by Peter King of New York and the Subcommittee on Intelligence led by Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania are leading the charge in this effort. The Islamist Group has been on the offensive since the beginning of the year. How this effort turns out has yet to be seen.




Mar. 30th, 2012

Mixed Signals

We will begin this update with the Kony 2012 video and the continued aftermath. Several Groups including Ugandans will be protesting tomorrow at the Headquarters of Invisible Children in San Diego.

The objective of this protest is to highlight that President Museveni of Uganda is just as culpable in the more than 20 years of violence that plagued Northern Uganda and left the Acholi
people suffering the most. One thing that IC and others have omitted has been the plight of those who were in Internal Displacement Camps. Two Laws that were passed by the Congress were to provide US Funds to address this issue as well. So who is going to ask them how much  US Aid has been going to Uganda to alleviate this problem as well.

Speaking of Congress.... The Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on Africa held a hearing yesterday afternoon regarding Nigeria. As those who read Confused Eagle have become aware the Homeland Security Committee on the House side has been doing yoeman's work monitoring the offensive by Boko Haram. It is to the point that this committee has been in the lead regarding this than the respective Foreign Affairs Committees. 

Nigeria is a key linchpin regarding our Strategy towards Africa. At least that is the view of AFRICOM and the Pentagon. The Country is a key supplier of Oil to the United States as well. And with the recent Coup in Mali stability in West Africa should be a key concern to the Obama Administration. 

Speaking of Stability how about the results in Senegal? A Runoff with the Incumbent stepping down Peacefully. It seems that the lessons that were learned from Zambia and not the DRC. Guinea-Bissau will have a runoff as well soon. I wonder how they will play out?

Digressing back to Mali for a Second. The Tauregs have captured a key town in the North. Also an ECOWAS Delegation was denied entry into the Country. So will ECOWAS move in and restore the President? Its a possibility right now. 

Something that the Media hasn't told you yet: There was a Border Clash Earlier this week between two key US Allies in the Gulf of Guinea. The Clash happened between Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea. No casualties were reported but this is something that will have to be watched as well.

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