Confused Eagle

It has been an interesting week in Nigeria. As most of you are aware by now, President Johnathan declared a State of Emergency in three Northern States to deal with the mayhem and chaos that has been created by Boko Haram.

But like most news originating from Nigeria there appears to be the obligatory twists and turns. Such as the visit last week to Abuja by the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Air Force. It is interesting to note that this visit occurred 48 hours before the Nigerian Security Operation began. There are now reports that Pakistani Pilots are even conducting sorties as well.

This information is not that much of a stretch. Both Air Forces just happen to fly the J-7 which is the Chinese version the the Mig-21 fighter. But why the Pakistanis are there are anybody's guess. But it can show one key fact however: Just how far does Johnathan actually trust the Air Force? Boko Haram has proven adept at infiltrating the Police and was even successful at getting an operative into the Office of the Vice-President as well.

Did anyone else notice the timing of the Suicide Attacks in Niger? Coming so soon after Nigeria asked for help from Niger with this Operation. Most of the casualties occurred when a Military convoy was hit. No one has really noticed that a Uranium Mine owned by the French Company Areva was also hit by the Islamists as well.

Late next month President Obama will take a trip to Africa. Tanzania is one of the stops on this trip as is Senegal. Initial reports did state that Rwanda would be on the short list as well. But Kenya is omitted yet again from the plans and there are some Nigerians as well that are upset that He is not paying proper attention to the situation that continues to unfold.

This weekend Secretary of State Kerry will represent the US at the 50th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the AU (or the Organization of African Union for some of us who are old enough to remember). This occasion is a crucial point in African History and African Politics. Its nice to see that there will be an official US representative at this affair unlike the Kenyan Election when the US was represented by Jesse Jackson.

Recently President Obama went on a trip to both Mexico and Costa Rica in a effort to promote
US Jobs in the region. Should we be surprised if Congress decided to take a different route?

Yesterday the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa under the stewardship of Representative Chris Smith of New Jersey held a hearing about increasing US Jobs by increasing exports to Africa. There is a sound backing for this strategy. It is shown by several studies that for every additional $1 Billion in exports by the US will generate between 6,000 to 7,000 Jobs.

It is this reasoning that Congressman Smith along with Congresswoman Karen Bass of California and Congressman Bobby Rush of Illinois have introduced H.R. 1777 aka the Increasing American Jobs Through Greater Exports to Africa Act of 2013. There is similar legislation on the Senate Side known as S. 718. The Main purpose of the Legislation is to increase US Trade to Africa by 200% over the next decade. It will also mandate that a minimum of 25% of US funds for trade deals to be devoted to facilitate US-Africa Trade.

There are some issues that need to be addressed such as the pay to play problem that highlights corruption and the fact that the lack of US Investment due to Sanctions and other issues plays into the hands of other powers notably China. Having these issues addressed could lead to targeted US Investments in areas such as Agriculture.

Another event here in Washington dealt with the role Somalia will play as a National Security Interest of the United States. The writer of Confused Eagle was able to ask a two-part question to a Former Prime Minister of Somalia. The first was a critique of the AMISOM mission which receives lots of US Dollars. The second part asked about the infrastructure within Somalia.

The Former PM stated that if it wasn't for AMISOM then Somalia would not be in the position that it is now in. He also lamented the murder of Burundian Peacekeepers as well. As to the infrastructure question he did say that there are no railroads in the Country and that the roads themselves are in poor shape.

Noticed that some Congolese and Rwandan Blogs over in Europe are reporting that the Rwandans have given M23 Rebels some SAMs... What is Ironic is that these missiles are the same type that shot down the Plane carrying the Rwandan President and started the genocide back in 1994. More to come on this story as the UN Intervention Brigade arrives soon.

Finally to wrap it up it appears that the Evangelicals may be at it again. Over the weekend a meeting was held in Ethiopia where several groups met and stated that Ethiopia needed a Kill the Gays Bills....

It has been revealed that one of the people believed to be the main architects of the Darfur Genocide will be coming to the United States in the near future.

Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie who is a Presidential Advisor to Bashir and was formerly head of the National Intelligence and Security Services is to arrive in the United States sometime in the near future as part of an Official Sudanese Delegation to discuss the Security Situation in the Nuba Mountains and in other crisis spots along the border with South Sudan.

Dr Nafie was the man behind the infamous Ghost Houses that were used in the past. The concept of this man as a peacemaker on behalf of the Government of Sudan is hypocritical. When he was in the Senate President Obama was critical of the dealings that President Bush had with Khartoum and now he is doing the same thing....

Some news from the CAR: It appears that somehow one of the main Opposition Leaders in Chad Ishmael Iddris Ishmael was somehow lured to Bangui. He was then captured and turned over to the Government of Chad. In an interesting report it appears that some of the actions of Seleka are forcing some members of the group to leave the group. Therefore the days of the ruler could be limited as well.

Has anyone noticed the recent State Department Report on Human Rights entry on Nigeria? In particular the apparent endorsement of a Federal Sharia Court which cites no source in the Nigerian Constitution. The offending passage states: " The constitution also provides the government should establish a federal Sharia court of appeal and a final court of appeal, but authorities had not done so by year's end." Currently the highest appellate court for Sharia-based decisions in Nigeria is the Supreme Court staffed by common law not religious judges who are not required to have any formal training in the Sharia Penal Code.

So why would the State Department say this? I have several colleagues that refer to the State Department Bureau of African Affairs as the Public Relations Department for Boko Haram. That quote sadly makes it clear that it may not be a joke.

The optimism that Somalia will return to the family of nations is gradually rising. However they have to work out the relationship with Somaliland for both parties to move forward. It will be a long intensive process.

You can almost see the hypocrisy in full force at the United Nations. After all they have been critical of the Obama Administration and its use of UAVs in the Af/Pak theatre. Then came word of the request for their use to support the trouble plagued mission in the Congo.

There is now word that the UN is now considering their use in Cote D'Ivorie. The request can be seen several ways. First of all the UN has major concerns in the Western part of the country. Earlier this year a column of Peacekeepers was patrolling the Border with Liberia was ambushed with six fatalities. So we see the Border Security Argument being used here.

The UN Mission in Liberia is in the process of scaling back its force by an estimated 4,000 troops this year. So we have another argument for their use as well. We know that the United States has a shiny new Base in Niger to host these machines. It is believed that they will be used to support the African Mission in Mali once that the French and Chadian Forces leave the Country. (Although Paris plans to leave 1,000 troops there....)

So how stable is Cote D'Ivorie? It appears that there are issues in the West (which is where supporters of former President Gbagbo are currently based) regarding Security. Plus the fact that there are plenty of fighters from Liberia that could be called upon are a good recipe for concern.

The US is reportedly going to lift its Arms Sanctions against Somalia. This is just another step towards the Country being welcomed back to the World.

The recent Oepration that led US Counternarcotics Officers to capture the former head of the Guinea-Bissau Navy had an even bigger target in mind. It appears the primary target of the operation was the current head of the Army and they just missed him....... maybe next time he won't be so lucky.

There are now reports that Uganda is requesting more Military Aid from the United States as well......

The flight of President Bozize from Bangui has created Problems for the Administration of Jacob Zuma in South Africa. We all know that 13 South African Military Personnel perished during the last push by SELEKA on the Capital of Bangui.

The Opposition Democratic Alliance had planned to introduce a Resolution calling for the immediate withdrawal of South African Forces (200 of them but at last reports reduced down to eight) from the Central African Republic. The Party has since tabled the Resolution. Reports from South Africa state that the President did not have the proper authority to send the forces to assist then-President Bozize. It is clear that South Africa has vested interests in the Extractive Minerals Industry aka Mining. This is one problem for the Obama Administration.

Another Problem is the LRA Mission. Currently there are several Dozen Green Berets stationed in the City of Fizi. During the previous march by SELEKA in December 2012 some of these elite fighters were sent to Bangui to bolster the Defense of the US Embassy. One side of this coin is did these troops have any advance information or warning that the March was going to resume.

The New Leaders in Bangui are reluctant launch any new efforts to rein in Kony. This has Invisible Children which lobbied the US Congress hard for this to prepare a new Campaign using Twitter to target Secretary of State Kerry urging that the United States and Uganda remain committed to bringing Kony to Justice. The Obama Administration has increased the reward on Kony to a cool $5 Million US.

Aid Groups such as MSF (Doctors Without Borders) and Physicians For Human Rights have been delayed in entering the CAR and alleviating the suffering that is currently taking place there. Over 2 million people are suffering from lack of food and other problems.

A Regional Summit was to take place to discuss this situation. Gabon, Chad and Congo-Brazzaville deployed troops to act as a buffer between the Bozize Regime and the Insurgents. There is no word about whether or not they suffered any casualties. However there are reports that also indicate that South Africans did engage Child Soldiers. (Wonder if that will affect US Aid).

Last Friday Rep. Karen Bass of California the Ranking Member of House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa Global Health and Human Rights introduced a Resolution regarding the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This Resolution H Res 131 seeks to address "The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the need for international efforts for long term peace, stability and the observance of Human Rights. Since the Resolution has been introduced there has been a violent clash in Katanga Province which resulted in the overrunning of a UN Base and the deaths of 35 people. The UN Security Council has taken the audacious step of authorizing a readiness brigade for this mission after adopting a resolution that was sponsored by the United States, France and Togo.

Right Now the UN senses that the situation in the DRC is in dire straits. This perception is highlighted not only by the violent divisions within M23 but also with the recent attack down in Katanga. In late Feb a Counselor at the DRC Embassy stated that the only problem in the DRC was with one group in the east that was more concerned with what Rwanda was concerned with then the Congo.

Speaking of the UN and Peacekeeping Ops, The Security Council has authorized a force of 11.200 Men to be deployed to Mali after the French withdraw. This will end up being  another long slog of a mission like the Congo has turned into.

It has been great to see the interest of the Mainstream Media regarding the plight of a US Pastor in Iran who has been a target for practicing his faith there. But there are two Missionaries from Brazil who are currently in custody in Northern Senegal. They have been in custody since November 2012. So why hasn't there been any interest in this amongst the Media? Could it be that they are from the Global South?

Speaking of the CAR it appears that events there are not by any means settled. The South Africans got bloodied in the last few hours suffering 19 soldiers killed. Reports are that they are preparing for a mission in Uganda. In fact there will be a hearing in the South African Parliament regarding the situation on April 4th. There is no word on whether the US Special Forces that are currently in CAR actively participated in defending Bangui like what happened in December.

It appears that the French are reestablishing their presence in the Country and the Head of the Army has sworn loyalty to the Rebels. The race is on for the Minerals in the Country as well.

The President of the People's Republic of China has wrapped up a trip to Africa that included stops in Tanzanzia and Brazzaville. If you can pick up a Print Edition of the Weekend Version of China Daily there is a good account of the visit to Brazzaville.

Bosco Ntaganda is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court. This is only the first step of a Drama that will probably end up revealing several key actors in the Crisis in the Congo that remain hidden.

The fact that he turned himself into the US Embassy in Kigali opens up several unsavory questions: Where is Laurent Nkunda has to be one of the first and most crucial questions. But if you think like someone who has an insight into how things are accomplished in Washington another question is Who Benefits with him going to the Hague?

Joseph Kabila Benefits from this. One key adversary in the Internal Political Climate in the DRC has just been removed and is out of the Country and possibly will end up in Prison. Another key person who benefits is Paul Kagame. He can continue with the "facade" that His Government and Military are not playing a role in the Violence that plagues the Eastern Part of the Country.

It is interesting to note that Congolese Authorities have been searching for Bosco for some time now. How is it that he just shows up at the US Embassy in Kigali? Did the Embassy reach out to him? If so who authorized it? It is possible that this is the first step in a New US Diplomatic Initiative for the region also.

The State Department has designated Ansar Dine which has been active in Mali as a Foreign Terrorist Group. Before the current offensive that was launched earlier this year by French and African Forces the group created havoc in Northern Mali and attempted to create their own Country.

It is currently belived that the group has links with Boko Haram in Nigeria. Earlier this week the Nigerians launched a wave of suicide bombings in Northern Nigeria. Why Ansar Dine is considered to be a FTO and Boko Haram is not by the State Department has confounded several activists here in the United States particularly the Nigerian Diaspora.

Finally we come to Uganda. In recent days the US Ambassador to the Country made a Statement that forced President Museveni to take some form of action. The Ambassador stated that the Grand Corruption plaguing the Country is a direct result of Governance. The Same Day the President met with members of the Acholis. This is the tribe that is most numerous in Northern Uganda. This is the region where the LRA began their two decades of inflecting Hell on Central Africa.

Earlier this week it was announced that the Pentagon would be revising Joint Publication 3-26. This is also known as the Counterterrorism Manual.

The CT program known as the Trans Saharan Counterterrorism Program has been under fire after the Coup that occurred in Mali last year. Mali was one of the initial group of four nations (Mauritania, Niger and Chad) that received assistance when the program was created after the 9/11 attacks on Washington and New York.

In the Foreign Operations budget request for the current Fiscal Year the State Department did request a 17% cut in funding for this program. The Republicans in the House did Honor the request and in one of the CRs which is currently funding the US Government at made it official.

One of the main questions we can ask is why has there been more "success" in the Horn of Africa in particular Somalia then there has been in West Africa? That is a crucial question to ask and one that should be addressed. We may get a glimpse into the answer to that question when the Ugandan Deployment to Mali is realized.

One thing is certain. The New Manual will not be used in Mali. It will be used in the next great African Crisis Spot. My Money is on Nigeria for that to occur.

On to other News:

It appears that the Peace Process in the Central African Republic may be done. Reports indicate that the Rebels launched a new offensive earlier this week. The towns of Bangassou and Rafai have already reported to have fallen to the insurgents and the town of Zemio is the next perceived target.

This quiet crisis which is a result of poor governance has the potential to destabilize Central Africa even further. More details are sure to follow.

Another Central African Country to watch out for is Burundi. Earlier this year the UN Security Council voted to extend the Mission there by another 12 Months. This week there is word of a clash between Police and a Catholic Sect in the North of the Country. This event will add to the long simmering tensions that permeate the Country.

Gabonese President Ali Bongo is coming to Washington in a couple of weeks also. That should be an interesting visit.

A victor has been declared in the Kenyan Presidential Elections. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto who both have been indicted by the International Criminal Court have been declared the victors garnering 50.06% of the cast ballots. Of course Raila Odinga has contested the results. So now what will happen regarding US Relations with Kenya?

The results places both the State Department and the White House in a situation. It has been the position of the United States that Sudanese President Bashir who himself has been indicted by the ICC that when he travels outside the borders of Sudan be taken into custody. Now US Strategic Interests are in play. An ally is going to be ruled by another indictee.

Next month both Kenyatta and VP Ruto are scheduled to be the subject of a hearing at The Hague. The US has stated that Elections do have Consequences. What will they be? Does anyone see the Administration actually withdrawing support for the Kenyan Role in Somalia? Its possible but not likely to happen. But any decision will not occur until after the hearing next month.

Another reason for concern is that there are reports of Libyan Merchants seeking to make deals in Kenya. How much money from the Treasury of Libya has yet to be determined at this time.

Another Country that is in front of the ICC and is a US Ally is Cote D'Ivorie.
Recently an update on the Peacekeeping status in the Country was held here in Washington.  It is felt that some allies of President Ouattara along with the wife of Former President Gbagbo should be in the dock as well. Since some Militia Elements that are closely allied to the Former President are prevalent in the Western Part of the Country and have a supply of potential fighters in neighboring Liberia then this is a recipe for potential problems.

Another Country of interest is Uganda. Two weeks ago it was announced that they are going to provide a contingent of troops for Operations in Mali. Recently the Internal Political Situation was the topic of another discussion here in Washington. Some of the key points raised were that dissent is being brutally repressed, The influence of American Evangelicals in the Country is overexaggerated and President Museveni should not be considered an honest broker in the M23 Peace Talks with the Congolese Government.

Another briefing covered the issue of Protection of Civilians by the UN Peacekeeping Mission in South Sudan.  This is a relatively small mission having 4700 Peacekeepers in an area roughly the size of France. One of the problems being faced is that the South Sudanese believe that the UN is there to protect them from Aggression from the North.

Currently it is felt that the Churches have done a excellent Job in promoting peace and keeping the Country together. Infrastructure reform in the Country is sorely needed for South Sudan to move forward as a Nation. The UN Mission in South Sudan is in need of assets such as Helicopters (Only 3 from Rwanda are currently on station at this time). and even Ground Forces and Police.

That is a wrap for now.

Earlier this week the Great Lakes Policy Forum held a two day event here in Washington regarding the contentious situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There was a sense of optimism since the event began less than 24 hours after a Accord was signed in Addis setting up a Framework for Peace.

The Issues that were highlighted were Security Sector Reform and the issues that plague FARDC. The other issue was how the US and other International Actors can have a positive Influence during this process. The Confused Eagle was able to ask two questions at these events.

First question regarded SSR. We know that there has been an emphasis on retraining and Integrating FARDC. However that is only one third of the problem. There are issues plaguing the National Police and the Intelligence Services as well. The question posed was are some of the same negative factors affecting the Army at this time also affecting the Police and the Intelligence Services.

At this time there is Legislation currently in Parliament that will set up the apparatus to oversee the training and development of the National Police. At this time there has been no action taken on this. This needs to occur. The Intelligence Services were not even discussed. A professional service would have caught the M23 Rebellion weeks before it occured.

The Second Question was in reply to comments made by a representative from the Ugandan Embassy. The Statement was made that the Allied Democratic Forces was still a threat to Uganda and still holding out in the Eastern DRC. The question was asked when was the last time the ADF launched an Operation. The reply was that the group has conducted 3 low scale Assassinations in Uganda. Not something you would break 120 fighters out of
a Congolese Prison for.

There was another briefing about the Peacekeeping Mission in Liberia. Starting this year the UN starts to reduce the number of Peacekeepers in the Country. At this time there are two factors that could create havoc and undo some of the work that the UN and Liberian Government have accomplished so far.

These issues are the situation along the border with Ivory Coast. There have been a series of cross border raids. Some of the Militant Groups have a core of Liberian Mercs so they are well trained. The second factor that may cause issues is the Timber Industry. Remember the phrase Private Use Permits we will hear that again.

President Bashir of Sudan made a huge gaffe recently. There have been reports that Militants from Mali have been using Darfur as a transit point. Recently at a Press Conference in Khartoum he was asked about this. His reply was that they are not Militants from Mali, but that they were Rebels from the Central African Republic. This was not a great statement to make.